At the beginning of this season, like many Albion fans, I was more hopeful than expectant of a top six finish. However, as the season progressed and Albion maintained their position in the top six, expectations naturally grew. Having achieved that initial goal, I believe the team can enter the playoff campaign without fear of failure but with the hope of unexpected success.
In some respects, the current situation mirrors the 2000/01 play-off campaign when a new manager had rescued the club the previous season and led them to a top six finish against all odds. Gary Megson, to his credit, faced lower expectations and had to rebuild the squad effectively, whereas Carlos Corberán inherited a squad that was perhaps underperforming rather than lacking in quality. Both times, the club was in a recovery phase, and while the 2001 attempt fell short, it marked the beginning of a remarkable journey.
Under the guidance of Carlos Corberán and with Shilen Patel at the helm, there’s a palpable sense that the club could be on the brink of something special once again. However, like in 2001, success in this play-off campaign isn’t mandatory, allowing Albion to approach it without undue pressure. Nonetheless, I believe this current team is better prepared for success compared to Megson’s team 23 years ago, suggesting they shouldn’t just be wary of failure but also not be intimidated by their opponents.
Southampton, likely Albion’s play-off semi-final opponents, have had the upper hand recently, having defeated Albion twice this season, and with Russell Martin boasting a perfect record against Albion as a manager. Yet, football’s unpredictability offers Albion reasons for optimism despite the statistical odds favoring the Saints.
Albion’s performance at St Mary’s in November showed promise, deserving more than just a point, especially with a strong second-half display. Notably, they were without Mikey Johnston, who has since become a crucial threat for the team. In February, although Southampton won at the Hawthorns, Albion was missing Bartley, and Johnston was still finding his rhythm with the team.
The key reason for optimism lies with Carlos Corberán’s managerial prowess. While he has a preferred style and setup, he’s also a pragmatist, likely to have learned valuable lessons from their recent encounters. Despite the results not favoring Albion, their tactical switch to a back three against Leicester City showed promise, hindered primarily by poor finishing. Additionally, they’ve shown adaptability by resorting to long balls when facing intense opposition presses.
Contrastingly, Russell Martin’s adherence to a passing style can backfire dramatically, as seen in Southampton’s recent heavy defeat at the hands of Leicester City. This variance in approach suggests that Albion could exploit tactical opportunities in the upcoming match.
Of course, football is ultimately about players and how they perform on the day. In recent weeks, good performances against Leicester City and Preston North End sandwiched an absolute dog of a display at Hillsborough, but that has thankfully been a rare occurrence under Carlos Corberán. Let’s hope that is the last one we will see in this campaign!
There’s a prevailing notion about Albion’s subpar finishing, and while there are instances of that, their overall performance exceeds expected goals (xG), averaging 1.52 goals per game compared to an xG of 1.13 according to FootyStats. Even Brandon Thomas-Asante, despite criticism for his finishing, is almost on par with his xG, scoring 11 goals against an xG of 11.29 in the Championship this season.
Carlos Corberán might consider tweaking the formation to surprise the opposition on Sunday, but sticking to a back four seems likely with a similar lineup to the previous game. The only potential change could be Wallace or Fellows, with the skipper possibly getting the nod this time.
The team showed their mettle last weekend with a fantastic result and performance, backed by an enthusiastic Hawthorns crowd. With another sold-out crowd expected, the atmosphere will likely be electric on Sunday, hopefully leading to another positive outcome.
Approaching the playoffs with more hope than expectation, Albion shouldn’t fear any opponent, as they have the quality to overcome anyone on their day. While things may not always go perfectly, the focus is on enjoying the journey regardless of the outcome.
Come On You Baggies!!